Introduction
Fresh fighting in northern Ethiopia has raised fears that the country could be heading back toward a wider war, nearly four years after a peace agreement ended the devastating 2020–2022 Tigray conflict.
On September 23, 2026, fighting was reported in Tigray and neighbouring Afar and Amhara regions. Ethiopian federal officials accused forces linked to the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) of launching an offensive against government positions, while Tigrayan authorities said they had entered what they described as a defensive war after accusing the federal government of attacking Tigray.
The renewed violence comes after months of rising tensions, troop movements and political disputes between Addis Ababa and the Tigray leadership. It also follows the announcement of a new alliance involving the TPLF and several other armed groups opposed to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government.
The latest developments have raised concerns about the survival of the November 2022 Pretoria peace agreement, which ended the previous war but left several major political, territorial and security questions unresolved.
What Is Happening in Ethiopia?
The latest confrontation centres on Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region, where forces associated with the TPLF have again become involved in fighting with federal forces.
Reuters reported on September 23 that Ethiopian officials said Tigrayan forces had launched a major offensive against federal government positions in neighbouring Afar and Amhara. Tigrayan authorities, meanwhile, said they were responding defensively to what they described as an escalation by the federal government.
The situation remains fluid, and independent verification of individual battlefield claims is difficult because access to affected areas is limited.
Reports also indicate that Tigrayan forces seized control of airports in the region, including the airport in the regional capital Mekelle. Ethiopian Airlines subsequently suspended flights to Mekelle, Shire and Axum because of the security situation.
The airport developments are particularly significant because they affect civilian movement and demonstrate how quickly the security situation has deteriorated.
Ethiopia and Tigray Give Different Accounts
One of the central features of the latest crisis is that both sides accuse the other of starting the fighting.
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s adviser Getachew Reda said the TPLF had launched an offensive against federal government positions in Afar and Amhara. He also said Tigrayan forces had taken control of airports in Tigray.
Tigrayan authorities have presented a different account.
The Tigray administration said its forces had been instructed to respond to an attack and described the situation as a defensive war. Reuters reported that Tigrayan leaders said they had entered a new war with the federal government.
Because the competing claims have emerged during active fighting, the precise sequence of military actions remains difficult to establish independently.
That distinction is important when assessing reports from the conflict. Statements by either side may reflect their political and military objectives, while independent access to the battlefield remains restricted.
Tigray’s Airports Become a Key Development
The reported seizure of airports in Tigray is one of the most visible signs of the latest escalation.
Local residents told the BBC that Tigrayan forces had taken control of Mekelle airport from federal police. Ethiopian Airlines then announced the suspension of flights to several destinations in Tigray.
Mekelle is the capital of Tigray and an important administrative and economic centre.
Restrictions on air travel can have consequences beyond military operations. They can affect humanitarian workers, medical services, business activity and civilians attempting to leave areas affected by violence.
The suspension of flights also illustrates the broader uncertainty surrounding movement in the region.
The Shadow of the 2020–2022 Tigray War
The current fighting is especially concerning because Tigray was already the scene of one of Africa’s most destructive recent conflicts.
The previous war began in November 2020 after a political and military confrontation between the federal government and the TPLF-led Tigray administration.
The conflict lasted approximately two years and involved federal Ethiopian forces, Tigrayan forces and troops from neighbouring Eritrea, among others.
The fighting caused enormous humanitarian suffering, including deaths, displacement, food insecurity and destruction of infrastructure.
Estimates of the death toll vary considerably. The African Union has previously cited figures reaching hundreds of thousands, while researchers and other organisations have produced different estimates.
The conflict finally moved toward a political settlement in 2022.
The 2022 Pretoria Agreement
In November 2022, representatives of the Ethiopian federal government and the TPLF signed the Pretoria Cessation of Hostilities Agreement.
The agreement was brokered under African Union leadership and brought large-scale fighting to an end.
It established a framework for ending hostilities, restoring humanitarian access and beginning a political process.
The agreement significantly reduced violence in Tigray, but it did not resolve every underlying dispute.
Questions surrounding disputed territories, displaced populations, political authority and disarmament remained difficult.
Human Rights Watch said in September 2026 that disagreements over implementation of the Pretoria agreement had continued to contribute to rising tensions between the federal government and the TPLF.
Why Tensions Have Returned
The deterioration has not happened overnight.
Relations between the federal government and the Tigray leadership have been worsening for more than a year.
The two sides have disagreed over political authority, territorial questions and the implementation of the Pretoria agreement.
There have also been concerns about the movement and mobilisation of armed forces.
Human Rights Watch reported that both parties had accused each other of military mobilisation, while unresolved disputes over contested territory, displaced people and disarmament continued to threaten the peace agreement.
These unresolved issues have created an environment in which relatively small clashes can quickly generate fears of a broader confrontation.
A New Alliance Changes the Political Picture
The latest fighting follows another major political development.
On September 21, seven Ethiopian armed groups announced an alliance aimed at challenging and ultimately removing Abiy Ahmed’s government.
The coalition includes the TPLF, the Amhara Fano National Movement and the Oromo Liberation Army, along with several smaller groups from other parts of Ethiopia.
The alliance is notable because some of its members were previously on opposing sides during Ethiopia’s conflicts.
The TPLF and Amhara Fano forces, for example, fought on different sides during the Tigray war.
Their decision to cooperate reflects their shared opposition to the federal government, although the groups have different political objectives and territorial interests.
The Alliance’s Goals
The new coalition has said it wants to remove Abiy Ahmed’s government and establish an inclusive transitional administration.
The groups call themselves the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival.
According to reports, the alliance has been under discussion for around a year.
However, the extent to which the groups can coordinate military operations remains uncertain.
The organisations are geographically dispersed and have different political priorities.
Reuters noted that analysts have questioned whether the alliance can overcome internal differences and logistical challenges.
The development nonetheless adds another layer to Ethiopia’s already complicated security environment.
Ethiopia Faces Multiple Security Challenges
The Tigray conflict is not Ethiopia’s only major security problem.
Armed conflict has also affected the Amhara and Oromia regions.
Fano groups have fought federal forces in Amhara since 2023, while the Oromo Liberation Army has been involved in conflict with the government in Oromia for years.
The formation of an alliance connecting groups from different regions therefore raises concerns about the possibility of multiple conflicts becoming politically connected.
The Council on Foreign Relations described Ethiopia’s conflict environment as worsening and noted that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government faces insurgencies in several regions.
The Role of Amhara Forces
Amhara politics are particularly important because the region borders Tigray.
Fano militias fought alongside federal forces during the earlier Tigray conflict but later became involved in fighting against the federal government.
Their inclusion in the new alliance with the TPLF represents a significant change in political alignments.
However, historical disputes between Tigray and Amhara communities remain unresolved.
Territorial disagreements could make cooperation between the groups difficult even if they share opposition to the federal government.
The Role of Oromia
The Oromo Liberation Army is another major member of the new alliance.
Oromia is Ethiopia’s largest regional state by population and surrounds the capital Addis Ababa.
The OLA has been involved in an armed insurgency against the federal government.
Its inclusion gives the new alliance a presence beyond northern Ethiopia.
However, the distance between Tigray, Amhara and Oromia presents significant practical challenges for any coordinated military campaign.
Humanitarian Concerns Are Growing
Any return to large-scale war would create serious humanitarian risks.
The previous Tigray conflict produced extensive displacement and disrupted food supplies, healthcare, education and basic services.
A renewed conflict could place additional pressure on communities that have not fully recovered from the earlier war.
Humanitarian organisations already face challenges operating in conflict-affected parts of Ethiopia.
New fighting could make access more difficult and increase the number of civilians requiring assistance.
Displacement Could Increase
Population displacement is one of the major risks associated with renewed fighting.
During the previous war, millions of people were affected directly or indirectly by violence and disruption.
Fresh clashes in border areas between Tigray and Afar could force civilians to leave their homes.
A similar problem could emerge in areas close to Amhara if fighting expands.
Humanitarian agencies would then face the challenge of providing food, water, shelter and healthcare while security conditions remain unstable.
Food Security Is Another Concern
Northern Ethiopia has experienced serious food insecurity in recent years.
Conflict can make the situation worse by disrupting agriculture, markets and transportation.
Farmers may be unable to reach fields, transport networks can be interrupted, and food deliveries can become more difficult.
The effects can continue even after active fighting ends.
For that reason, the humanitarian consequences of renewed conflict could extend far beyond areas where fighting is directly occurring.
Why the Conflict Matters Beyond Tigray
Ethiopia is one of Africa’s most populous countries and plays an important role in regional politics.
It is also home to the headquarters of the African Union in Addis Ababa.
Instability in Ethiopia could therefore have consequences for neighbouring countries and the wider Horn of Africa.
The region already faces conflicts and political tensions involving Sudan, South Sudan, Eritrea and Somalia.
A prolonged Ethiopian conflict could add another major source of instability.
Eritrea Is a Major Regional Factor
Eritrea played a significant role in the previous Tigray war.
Eritrean forces supported Ethiopian federal troops during the conflict, although Eritrea’s government has faced international criticism over its involvement.
The relationship between Ethiopia and Eritrea has also become increasingly complicated.
Recent reports have included accusations that Eritrea supports Ethiopian armed groups opposed to Abiy’s government. Eritrea has denied such allegations.
Any significant expansion of the Tigray conflict could therefore raise questions about Eritrea’s position.
The Sudan Border Adds Another Dimension
Western Tigray borders Sudan.
This makes the area strategically important and increases concern about regional spillover.
Sudan itself remains embroiled in a devastating war between rival military forces.
The presence of refugees, armed groups and disputed border areas creates additional security challenges.
A major conflict in Tigray could therefore have implications for an already unstable regional environment.
The African Union Faces a Major Test
The African Union played an important role in ending the previous Tigray war.
The Pretoria agreement was a major diplomatic achievement for African-led conflict resolution.
The latest escalation therefore represents a serious test for the organisation.
Human Rights Watch has urged the African Union to increase its engagement with both the Ethiopian government and the TPLF before the situation develops further.
Diplomatic efforts could become increasingly important if the current fighting remains limited enough for negotiations to take place.
Why Independent Verification Is Difficult
Reporting from active conflict zones presents major challenges.
Communications can be disrupted, journalists may not be able to reach fighting areas and both military and political actors have incentives to present events in ways that support their positions.
This means claims about territorial control, casualties and the direction of military advances should be treated cautiously until independently verified.
The latest reports have confirmed fighting and major security developments, but the precise battlefield picture remains fluid.
Could the Pretoria Agreement Survive?
The future of the 2022 peace agreement is now one of the central questions.
The agreement formally ended the previous war, but implementation has been incomplete and disagreements have continued.
Renewed fighting could weaken confidence in the agreement even if the current confrontation remains limited.
If both sides return to negotiations, the agreement could potentially provide a framework for renewed dialogue.
If military escalation continues, however, the political space for compromise could narrow.
What Could Prevent a Wider War?
Several factors could influence whether the latest fighting expands.
The first is the ability of Ethiopian and Tigrayan leaders to reopen communication.
The second is the involvement of regional and international mediators.
The third is whether military commanders on both sides can prevent local clashes from spreading.
The African Union could also play an important role by encouraging implementation of existing agreements and supporting negotiations.
International governments may likewise push for restraint and humanitarian access.
Why Dialogue Remains Important
The enormous human cost of the previous war demonstrates the consequences of prolonged military confrontation.
A new conflict would not simply involve soldiers.
Civilians, farmers, children, displaced families and humanitarian workers would all face increased risks.
Dialogue cannot resolve every political disagreement immediately, but it can provide a mechanism for addressing disputes without returning to full-scale warfare.
That makes the preservation of communication channels particularly important as tensions rise.
What Happens Next?
The immediate priority will be monitoring whether fighting remains concentrated in northern Ethiopia or spreads into additional areas.
Reports of clashes in Tigray, Afar and Amhara have already increased concerns about a wider confrontation.
The actions of the TPLF, federal forces and the newly formed armed alliance will be closely watched.
So too will the response of the African Union and neighbouring governments.
Humanitarian organisations will also be watching for population movements and changes in access to affected communities.
Conclusion
The latest fighting between Ethiopian federal forces and Tigrayan forces has revived fears of another major war in northern Ethiopia.
Both sides accuse the other of initiating the latest escalation, and independent verification of competing battlefield claims remains difficult.
What is clear is that the security situation has deteriorated significantly.
The reported seizure of airports in Tigray and the suspension of Ethiopian Airlines flights to Mekelle, Shire and Axum show the seriousness of the current disruption.
The crisis has also emerged only days after the TPLF joined six other armed groups in an alliance seeking to challenge Abiy Ahmed’s government.
The memories of the 2020–2022 Tigray war make the latest developments particularly concerning. That conflict caused enormous human suffering before the Pretoria Agreement brought large-scale fighting to an end in November 2022.
Whether the current confrontation develops into a wider conflict will depend on events on the ground, political decisions by the main parties and the effectiveness of diplomatic efforts.
For now, the renewed clashes underline how fragile Ethiopia’s post-war settlement remains and why unresolved political, territorial and security disputes continue to pose serious risks to peace in the country.